Trying to predict the exact order of the NBA Draft is like playing BINGO blindfolded. While you might get lucky here and there — like the free square that has become French phenom Victor Wembanyama to the Spurs at No. 1 — the odds of correctly guessing the top 10 are slim to none. Luckily for us, we have odds, research, logic, and reason at our disposal, so we're ready to pick our spots, find the best values, and make some money on the 2023 NBA Draft on Thursday night (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN).
After the inevitable Wemby walk, what happens? Just like the 2022 NBA Draft, only one selection in the top three seems set in stone. Last year, the stone-cold lock was Chet Holmgren to OKC at No. 2, but picks No. 1 and 3 shook the betting world to its core with the help of some faulty Woj bombs. This year, the second and third picks have provided the most uncertainty. Though heavily discussed by mock drafters, pundits, and NBA analysts leading up to this week, nobody knows for certain what Charlotte or Portland will do.
Both the Hornets and Blazers are in weird states of flux. Michael Jordan is getting out of the Hive, and Damian Lillard could be blazing a trail elsewhere if Rip City doesn't start building around him better. With teams like the Pelicans dangling Zion Williamson around in potential trade-ups, the storylines seem plentiful going into Thursday night.
MORE NBA DRAFT:
Full Mock Draft | Big Board | Prop Betting Over/Unders | What will Wemby world look like?
Let's dive right into the BetMGM odds, our analysis, and the best bets for each of the top 10 picks for the 2023 NBA Draft. Bettors, we're all on the clock, so let's make some educated picks and have some offseason fun!
NBA Draft 2023 Top 10: Odds, best bets, and predictions
Odds courtesy of BetMGM, an Authorized Gaming Operator of the NBA. Click here to sign up!
No. 1 pick (San Antonio Spurs)
| Player | Odds |
| Victor Wembanyama | -10000 |
| Scoot Henderson | +4000 |
| Brandon Miller | +15000 |
| Amen Thompson | +20000 |
| Ausar Thompson | +20000 |
| Jarace Walker | +20000 |
Like LeBron James 20 years ago, Wemby is a generational talent that no GM in his right mind would pass up on. The 7-4 French sensation will become the third center since 1987 to be drafted No. 1 by the Spurs, following in the giant footsteps of former MVPs and league champions David Robinson and Tim Duncan. Wemby also enters San Antonio for the career swan song of 74-year-old future Hall-of-Famer Gregg Popovich for one last run at glory.
Wembanyama's presence alone exponentially boosts the value of the Spurs franchise, well before he even steps onto an NBA court. Whereas last year there was uncertainty right up to 20 minutes before the No. 1 pick was announced — with Adrian Wojnarowski flip-flopping from Jabari Smith Jr. to Paolo Banchero in a matter of 12 hours — this year is as cut-and-dry as the first selection of an NBA Draft may ever be again. As such, there is no value to be found for bettors.
Betting advice: If you have $5,000 to risk and want to make a quick $50, bet Wembanyama (-10000). If your bankroll is like mine — and limited to the hundreds and not thousands — you'll probably want to just fade this one entirely.
MORE: How much money would you net if you bet on Wemby to be picked No. 1?
No. 2 (Charlotte Hornets)
| Player | Odds |
| Scoot Henderson | -275 |
| Brandon Miller | +170 |
| Victor Wembanyama | +10000 |
| Amen Thompson | +12500 |
| Ausar Thompson | +12500 |
| Jarace Walker | +12500 |
| Anthony Black | +12500 |
| Cam Whitmore | +12500 |
Here's where things start to get interesting, and where we think some value starts to reveal itself. Sportsbooks seem bullish on Scoot Henderson at No. 2, taking into account that he's probably the second-most talented overall prospect in the class and represents arguably the second-highest trade chip. However, he's not the best or second-best fit for a Hornets team centered around point guard LaMelo Ball.
Ball's surname suits him perfectly. Few players his age are as ball-dominant as the 2021 Rookie of the Year and '22 All-Star. When healthy, he's among the best in the biz at playmaking and producing points in bunches, but he needs some pure scorers in the frontcourt to open up the floor and provide some half-court offensive stability. With oft-injured Gordon Hayward entering the final year of his contract and Miles Bridges still suspended and eligible for restricted free agency, Charlotte's best bet might be to select Alabama's Brandon Miller.
At 6-9, 200 pounds with ups, reach, and athleticism, Miller checks a bunch of boxes for the Hornets. With Terry Rozier locked into guaranteed money until 2025 — and partially guaranteed until '26 — we don't see Mitch Kupchak selecting a 6-2 guard here. Even if Bridges returns to the Queen City, Miller could slot right into the three or four just like 2022 No. 4 pick Keegan Murray did for Sacramento last season. A young nucleus of Ball, Miller, and 2022 first-round center Mark Williams gives Steve Clifford a solid foundation for the future.
According to BetMGM, 58 percent of the money associated with No. 2 pick bets has been on Henderson. We're shying away from the crowd here and going with Miller to be the second name called Thursday night -- assuming Charlotte keeps the pick.
Betting advice: Plenty of volatility exists here with the possibility of trades, but as of right now we're leaning heavily toward Miller (+170) while the majority of NBA bettors go with Henderson (-275).
MORE: Could Pelicans trade Zion Williamson to Charlotte for the No. 2 pick?
No. 3 (Portland Trail Blazers)
| Player | Odds |
| Brandon Miller | -225 |
| Scoot Henderson | +175 |
| Amen Thompson | +1400 |
| Cam Whitmore | +1800 |
| Ausar Thompson | +8000 |
| Jarace Walker | +8000 |
| Anthony Black | +8000 |
| 13 others | +15000 |
With Miller off our board at No. 2, here are the three moves that Blazers GM Joe Cronin will likely choose from on Thursday night:
- Trade Damian Lillard and select the best available player (Scoot)
- Retain Dame and still select Scoot
- Trade the rights to No. 3 to a team that will pick Scoot
However we slice it, we have Scoot going at three if Miller gets selected second. The G-League Ignite star has far too much across-the-board talent to select anyone else above him at this point in the draft. As much as we like Amen Thompson of Overtime Elite, the scoring upside seems much higher with Henderson.
If Charlotte does surprise us and pick Henderson second, the Blazers will absolutely snatch up Miller in a heartbeat. Portland's biggest needs are length and perimeter scoring help for Dame, but without many high-upside bigs or perimeter scorers after Miller, Cronin's hands will be tied if the Hornets grab Miller as we expect. Our money is on the top three picks going Wemby, Miller, Scoot in that order.
Betting advice: If you're looking to bet on every top-three pick, consider waiting to see if BetMGM will release an "Exact Order 1-2-3" prop with boosted odds. Otherwise, the best bet as far as we're concerned is Henderson (+175). In fact, Henderson +175 at No. 3 is a better bet than Miller +170 at No. 2 given that it pays out a bit more. We wouldn't recommend betting on No. 2 and No. 3 individually. That would be putting too many eggs in one basket in terms of personal betting liability. If Scoot does go at No. 2, we don't want to lose twice.
MORE: Miller vs. Scoot takes center stage in SN's full two-round mock draft
No. 4 (Houston Rockets)
| Player | Odds |
| Amen Thompson | -190 |
| Cam Whitmore | +250 |
| Ausar Thompson | +500 |
| Brandon Miller | +1500 |
| Jarace Walker | +1800 |
| Scoot Henderson | +3000 |
| Anthony Black | +3000 |
| Taylor Hendricks | +6000 |
Amen Thompson — half of perhaps the most talented twins in NBA Draft history — easily ranks as the fourth-best player in this class. He also easily serves as the best fit for Ime Udoka and the Rockets, who needed a playmaking point guard to put the finishing touches on a franchise rebuild that includes bigs Jabari Smith Jr. and Alperen Sengun as well as perimeter scorers Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr.
Thompson has explosive athleticism, solid defensive fundamentals, and a natural passing prowess that make him impossible to pass on at No. 4. The 6-7 guard also has a nearly 6-10 wingspan, making him a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. He will be a Udoka favorite from the jump, and he's our favorite of all the top four picks in terms of betting value. This one's a lock, unless...
...Of course, as Sporting News' NBA Draft expect Kyle Irving points out, Houston could very well bring James Harden back to Houston this offseason, throwing a proverbial monkey wrench in the Rockets' need for a true point guard. Irving has Harden returning to Space City and Houston ultimately picking Villanova's Cam Whitmore, which would be the Rockets' best perimeter option.
Nothing surprises us on draft night anymore, but we still have Houston selecting the best available player in Thompson. Whitmore is too raw to spend a top-four pick on, in our opinion. The Rockets are better off luring a veteran wing on a mid-level exception if and when Harden returns. Amen can spend some time at the two away from the ball while Harden creates off the dribble. We're sticking with our guns...er, Rockets.
Betting advice: We have GM Rafael Stone and the Rockets saying, "Can I get an Amen?" on Thursday night, and we'll be shouting "Hallelujah!" after we cash our bets on the very slightly older Thompson (-190). As far as "best bets" go, this one feels like the most reliable. Amen is not only the best available prospect once Wemby, Scoot, and Miller all go off the board, but he also fills Houston's biggest rotational hole. Even if Harden returns to H-town, this is the best pick the Rockets can make.
MORE: Amen or Ausar? Breaking down the Thompson twins' draft-related betting odds
No. 5 (Detroit Pistons)
| Player | Odds |
| Cam Whitmore | +175 |
| Jarace Walker | +175 |
| Ausar Thompson | +350 |
| Amen Thompson | +500 |
| Taylor Hendricks | +1600 |
| Anthony Black | +2500 |
| Brandon Miller | +3000 |
| Gradey Dick | +8000 |
As the odds might imply, this is one of the more difficult picks to predict. We know the odds favor Detroit selecting a forward to complement the backcourt duo of Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey, but arguments could be made for both Villanova's Whitmore and Houston's Jarace Walker, hence the dead-even odds. There also exists the possibility that Ausar Thompson or Taylor Hendricks swoops in as a dark-horse pick and cashes out some sleeper bets.
Initially, I thought that the Pistons would select Jarace Walker for his size, strength, and toughness, but after thinking about it some more, I'm going with Villanova's Cam Whitmore here, as he possesses the best inside-outscoring scoring upside of the remaining field.
At 6-9 with a quick first step, athletic finishing ability, and a smooth shooting stroke, Whitmore could blossom into a fantastic NBA scorer with the right tutelage. He seems like a perfect wing player for new Pistons head coach Monty Williams, who helped small forwards Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson flourish during his time as the Suns' coach. (Sidenote: this would make Monty's third time coaching a Cam, after Johnson and Payne in Phoenix).
Betting advice: Bet Whitmore (+175) to join Williams' young squad in Motown. If you want a good $10 sleeper bet, go with Hendricks (+1600). A versatile wing with NBA-ready size, strength, and a 7-foot wingspan, Hendricks to Detroit is my favorite sleeper of the top five picks. If it hits, you win $160 and look like a genius. If it doesn't, you lose a ten-spot and probably cash on the Whitmore bet anyway.
MORE: Why the Pistons made Monty Williams the NBA's highest paid coach
No. 6 (Orlando Magic)
| Player | Odds |
| Ausar Thompson | +200 |
| Amen Thompson | +400 |
| Anthony Black | +450 |
| Jarace Walker | +550 |
| Cam Whitmore | +600 |
| Taylor Hendricks | +650 |
| Gradey Dick | +3000 |
| Cason Wallace | +10000 |
We've liked Black for the Magic all along (Black Magic — cue the Santana tune!). Orlando needs a natural point guard to lead its young core, and Black could slide right in as the franchise's 2023 version of Penny Hardaway (or Josh Giddey, a much more fitting comp for the 6-7 Arkansas guard).
The Magic already have 2022 No. 1 pick Paolo Banchero locked into power forward, standout 2021 draft pick Franz Wagner occupying the three, and Wendell Carter Jr. and Bol Bol sharing time at center. Cole Anthony, Markelle Fultz, and Jalen Suggs have a bit of a logjam and the organization would be better off shipping off one or two of them for an upgrade at two-guard and sliding Black right into the starting or backup point guard role.
Black's basketball IQ is incredible for a 19-year-old, and he will enter the Association with the ability to run an NBA offense if paired with the right coach. Jamahl Mosley seems like a perfect match for Black, and Black seems like a fantastic fit for this Magic team.
Betting advice: Put it all on Black (+450)! Just kidding about the "all" part — don't blow your bankroll because of a bad Dad-joke -- but we're getting great value here. This is my favorite plus-odds bet on the top 10 board.
No. 7 (Indiana Pacers)
| Player | Odds |
| Jarace Walker | +210 |
| Taylor Hendricks | +210 |
| Ausar Thompson | +500 |
| Cam Whitmore | +500 |
| Anthony Black | +750 |
| Amen Thompson | +1300 |
| Gradey Dick | +2500 |
| Cason Wallace | +4000 |
Here's one that we'll be fading entirely, as we could see Indy going for any of the top four names on this list. The Pacers are also notorious for being one of the more difficult NBA teams to make draft-day predictions for, sometimes making selections that make us scratch our heads.
Walker makes sense for this team as an aggressive defender with the ability to penetrate the lane on offense. Hendricks would also be a great fit for this squad if he's still available, but if we have to lock a pick in, we're going with Ausar Thompson here.
The Overtime Elite MVP has absurd athleticism and would immediately be one of Indy's most potent dribble-drive scorers. He also has an All-Defensive ceiling if he's nurtured correctly at the next level. The potential payout would be huge for Indiana, just as the +500 payout would be huge for us.
Betting advice: We would probably fade this pick altogether or put a modest $10-$20 wager on Ausar (+500).
No. 8 (Washington Wizards)
| Player | Odds |
| Anthony Black | +140 |
| Cason Wallace | +600 |
| Kobe Bufkin | +800 |
| Taylor Hendricks | +900 |
| Jarace Walker | +900 |
| Ausar Thompson | +900 |
| Amen Thompson | +900 |
| Bilal Coulibaly | +900 |
We originally had Black slated to join the Wizards at No. 8, but we have since moved him up to No. 6 to Orlando. Washington should still opt for a point guard even after trading away Bradley Beal, as this class is PG-heavy and Wes Unseld Jr. needs someone to give this young offense some direction. Thus, our best bet is Wallace, an underrated 6-3 guard from Kentucky.
Wallace has elite vision, a strong handle, smooth outside stroke, and above-average defensive chops. We've read myriad comps to Jrue Holiday, which is about as generous a compliment as a 19-year-old can get, but for now, we're going to call him T.J. McConnell with range. One thing's for sure: Wallace could very well have the talent and confidence to slide right into a starting point guard role, making him an easy choice for the powers that be in D.C.
Betting advice: Bet Wallace (+600) to lead Washington's backcourt into the future.
No. 9 (Utah Jazz)
| Player | Odds |
| Taylor Hendricks | +400 |
| Anthony Black | +400 |
| Bilal Coulibaly | +500 |
| Cam Whitmore | +600 |
| Cason Wallace | +650 |
| Gradey Dick | +650 |
| Kobe Bufkin | +700 |
| Ausar Thompson | +1400 |
| Jarace Walker | +1600 |
When you see a bunch of different names bunched together under a pick's odds board, it tells you that nobody really has any damn clue what the GM in question will do. That's typically always the case with Danny Ainge, one of the more unpredictable executives in NBA history. The Jazz could certainly use a true point guard, so we understand why a bunch of mock drafters have Cason Wallace going to Utah, but just like we have Anthony Black off the board for Washington, we have Wallace off the board for the Jazz. The point guard slide is pretty steep after those two.
Kansas's Dick is a really intriguing play here at +650. He's probably the best natural shooter in this class, and we know both Ainge and the Jazz love themselves outside shooters. He would fill the shoes still largely unfilled since Bojan Bogdanovic headed out to Detroit a couple of years ago. Between Dick and Lauri Markkanen, just imagine how open the floor would be for Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson to operate.
The "best bet" of our remaining board is Hendricks at +400, but we also see Walker potentially sliding and becoming a solid dark-horse bet at +1600. Both Hendricks and Walker have size and strength at the three and quickness and athleticism at the four, and both seem like great players for Ainge and head coach Will Hardy to develop into studs.
Betting advice: We don't love any picks here, but Hendricks (+400) makes sense. If you're looking for a legit sleeper, go with Dick (+650). Long shot? Walker (+1600).
No. 10 (Dallas Mavericks)
| Player | Odds |
| Dereck Lively II | +300 |
| Bilal Coulibaly | +425 |
| Gradey Dick | +500 |
| Kobe Bufkin | +500 |
| Taylor Hendricks | +550 |
| Cason Wallace | +750 |
| Anthony Black | +1200 |
| Jalen Hood-Schifino | +1800 |
| Jarace Walker | +2000 |
Originally, I had Ausar Thompson as a darkhorse to fall to Dallas, but now we think he'll be long gone by pick No. 10. As intriguing as Dick's outside shooting might be for the Mavericks, we think Lively will be impossible for Nico Harrison to ignore on draft night. The Duke center would immediately improve Dallas down low on both sides of the floor and potentially give Dallas the ability to move on from Christian Wood or Dwight Powell if a strong trade presented itself.
Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving could use a strong interior presence for lobs and rebounding, not to mention a reliable athlete to help them establish the high screen-and-roll. Lively would be a perfect addition to the Mavs' equation, and one that could help this franchise finally take a step forward from its underwhelming first few years with Luka.
Betting advice: Bet Lively II (+300) to be picked No. 10, hopefully giving us another strong cash and closing out our top 10 in style.