French phenom Victor Wembanyama's days as an NBA prospect are dwindling. With the 2023 NBA Draft a little over a week away and the San Antonio Spurs on the clock, it's only a matter of time until Wembanyama struts across the stage at Barclays Center before dapping up Commissioner Adam Silver.
Unlike last season when the first overall pick betting markets saw some unprecedented fluctuations in the waning hours leading up to the Orlando Magic's selection, everyone and their brother knows with certainty who the No. 1 overall pick is this time around. We won't be needing any "Woj bombs" at pick one, but we'll gladly take some eyebrow-raising tweet reactions with the ensuing picks.
To no one's surprise, Wembanyama's pegged as a -10000 favorite on BetMGM to go first overall next Thursday night. Those odds translate to a whopping 99.01-percent implied probability. Any seasoned sports bettor knows that "locks" and "sure things" are nonexistent, but when betting into more niche markets like the NBA Draft, finding wagers that yield positive expected value can occur at a higher rate relative to betting on an individual game.
By no means are we saying you have an edge betting on Wembanyama to go No. 1 when his odds are -100000, but the odds technically imply he has less than a 100-percent chance of going No. 1 when in reality the Spurs' team store is likely mass producing Wembanyama jerseys as we speak.
So, if you're really itching to see the green box reading "won" on the top right corner of your ticket on the BetMGM app, how much money could you net by betting Wembanyama to go No. 1? Below, we'll look at the updated odds on the first overall pick along with how the betting public is approaching this market before diving into your potential net returns on the 7-5 Frenchman.
2023 NBA Draft Betting Odds: First overall pick
Odds courtesy of BetMGM, an Authorized Gaming Operator of the NBA. Click HERE to sign up!
| Player | Odds |
| Victor Wembanyama | -10000 |
| Scoot Henderson | +3000 |
| Brandon Miller | +10000 |
| Amen Thompson | +15000 |
| Ausar Thompson | +15000 |
| Jarace Walker | +15000 |
Even though Wembanyama's a shoo-in for the first overall pick, BetMGM still gives bettors an opportunity to wager on someone not named Wembanyama to go No. 1. In essentially every other draft class, projected No. 2 prospect Scoot Henderson (+3000) would be selected first, but his long odds still aren't enticing given the present situation.
Alabama's Brandon Miller (+10000) and Overtime Elite's Amen Thompson (+15000) are heavy favorites to be drafted in the top five, while Houston's Jarace Walker is a sure-fire lottery pick, but betting on them to go No. 1 will only deplete your bankroll.
BetMGM Insights: First overall pick
| Player | Opening Odds | Ticket% | Handle% |
| Victor Wembanyama | -10000 | 19.7% | 81.0% |
| Scoot Henderson | +3000 | 22.2% | 4.5% |
| Brandon Miller | +10000 | 36.9% | 11.9% |
| Amen Thompson | +15000 | 8.1% | 1.0% |
| Ausar Thompson | +15000 | 5.6% | 0.8% |
| Jarace Walker | +15000 | 7.6% | 0.9% |
When taking a look at how bettors at BetMGM are approaching this market, they aren't taking our advice of passing up on the long odds, hoping to see a repeat of last year's draft debacle.
Miller (+10000) has garnered the most tickets (36.9 percent) but it's only yielded 11.9 percent of the total handle. 22.2 percent of tickets have come in on Henderson (+3000), but that's only translated to 4.5 percent of handle.
The bigger bets have come in on Wembanyama, with 19.7 percent of bets and 81 percent of the handle bet on Wemby. It won't return much, but those bettors will at least win something on draft day.
How much money would you net betting Victor Wembanyama to go No.1?
| Risk | Net profit |
| $10 | $0.10 |
| $50 | $0.50 |
| $100 | $1.00 |
| $500 | $5.00 |
| $1,000 | $10.00 |
| $10,000 | $100 |
Betting limits aside, with Wembanyama's odds to go No.1 sitting at -10000, it will take a $10,000 bet to net a $100 return. A $10 bet returns a measly 10 cents, while a $100 bet will make you one dollar richer. Free money is free money, right? Jokes aside, it's unlikely a $10,000 bet on this market would be accepted, but at the same time why risk that type of money for such a minuscule return?
For most NBA Draft betting markets on legalized sportsbooks, there aren't concrete betting limits set in place, as unfortunately, those vary on a customer-by-customer basis. There is one offshore book out there that lists Wembanyama's odds to go first overall at -20000, taking limit bets of $6250.00 to win $31.25. So no, Jeff Bezo's couldn't put a billion to win $5,000,000 on Wemby to go 1-1.
There are plenty of other ways to get a higher ROI and disperse your betting bankroll than dishing out 10 G's, but to each their own. Even though the risk isn't worth the return, Wembanyama's the only player we'd consider betting on in the first-overall pick market.
At the end of the day, one of the keys to becoming a profitable sports betting over the long haul requires you to sit on your hands rather than force a bet for the sake of having action. It might not be fun, but there's always another betting opportunity that'll arise down the road, and knowing when not to make a bet is just as impactful as its converse.