Which Thompson twin will be drafted first? Breaking down the 2023 NBA Draft odds for Amen and Ausar Thompson

With the countdown ticking ever closer to the 2023 NBA Draft, most prospect-related banter has been centered around French phenom Victor Wembanyama and G-League star point guard Scoot Henderson. However, draft aficionados, hoop-heads, and big-time bettors know plenty of studs lie outside the top two or three projected picks.

Two players in particular — Overtime Elite teammates and twin brothers Amen and Ausar Thompson — have generated plenty of pre-draft buzz themselves, and not just because they're twins. Widely regarded as top-10 prospects, these 6-7 20-year-olds are overflowing with talent, brimming with confidence, and ready to take the NBA by storm. 

Overtime Elite stars Amen and Ausar Thompson – twin brothers who are projected to be high lottery picks – have officially declared for the 2023 NBA Draft. https://t.co/sOLIM2JMrY

— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) April 21, 2023

Naturally, sportsbooks and bettors have gravitated toward the Thompson twins, who would be the first set of twins drafted in the first round since Markief and Marcus Morris in 2011. If they both get picked within the top 10, they will be the first twins in NBA history to hold that distinction (somewhere, Robin and BroLo are smiling). 

But we don't care much about generational milestones — we care about winning bets! The prop offerings related to Amen and Ausar are plentiful, and some yield plenty of value. As always, you just need to know where to look. Today, we will pinpoint the cream of the crop of Thompson props and explain why each bet should be made or faded. 

2023 NBA Draft Betting Odds: Which Thompson twin will be drafted first?

Which Thompson brother will be the first to be drafted?

These odds might make this look like a closer race than most draft experts would have you believe, but in actuality, it paints a pretty good picture of how draft night has been projected to play out. Amen has been widely projected to go within the top five picks, while Ausar tends to be mocked in the 6-10 range.

DraftKings' -220 odds for Amen give him a 68.8-percent implied probability of going ahead of his bro. It's only right considering Amen was born one minute before Ausar on Jan. 30, 2003 (side note: I was a senior in high school). 

Most bettors hate juice — who wants to risk $100 for the chance to make $45 profit, right? Who wants to share a cut or "vig" with the bookies? Well, some people do — especially the ones with big bankrolls and a proclivity for surer bets and safer wagers.

For instance, famed Canadian rapper Drake recently staked $1 million on the Nuggets to win the NBA Finals, but he netted just $250,000 on that ticket (although it should be noted Drizzy also put $250,000 on the Nuggets in five, which paid out a total of $850,000). 

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I once knew a guy who bet $1,000 on Leonardo DiCaprio to win Best Actor for his role in "The Revenant." He cashed $50 on that bet. It was a sure thing, he told me. Totally worth the risk because there was none. 

Well, first of all, don't ever make a bet on anything -2000 — let's not forget what happened last year atop the draft after Woj bombed the No. 1 pick betting odds -- gut -220 is a hell of a lot different than -2000. Amen, for my money, is a much better NBA prospect than Ausar.

Both players have size (6-7, 215-220 pounds), burst, and bunnies (aka hops). But Amen has much better vision and slightly better handles than his not-so-little bro, and his playmaking and quick first step make him an NBA highlight reel waiting to happen. Ausar might be a slightly better outside shooter than Amen, but not enough to move the needle.

Amen checks more boxes and fits more needs of the Rockets at pick No. 4. If Houston indeed ends up bringing back James Harden and thus opting for Villanova forward Cam Whitmore at four like my colleague Kyle Irving recently mocked, then I agree with Kyle that Amen would go No. 6 to Orlando and Ausar would go No. 7 to Indiana. In any case, I have Amen going ahead of his brother.

Betting advice: Bet up to $200 on Amen being drafted ahead of Ausar, good for a $291 return if and when it hits. 

Exact pick props — at which draft pick will Amen and Ausar be selected?

Excluding Picks No. 1 and 2, as both brothers are extreme long shots for either pick.

First of all, these odds reinforce our mindset with the previous bet. It's not just draft nerds heavily projecting Amen getting called ahead of his bro, it's also oddsmakers. The fact that Amen is juiced at No. 4 and loose at 5-10 leads us to believe that Houston is either taking him outright fourth or trading the pick to a franchise that will. DK also has Amen juiced to -1600 to be selected within the top five, and the books also like Ausar to either go to Detroit at No. 5, Orlando at No. 6, or Indy at No. 7. 

I'm expecting the Pistons to select either Nova's Whitmore or University of Houston's Jarace Walker, filling the void left by dynamic two-way small forward Jerami Grant when he got traded to the Blazers a couple of years ago. Detroit doesn't need another ball-handler or playmaker — it needs a swingman who can shoot and drive the lane. Monty Williams won't want to rely on Bojan Bogdanovic for buckets with Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey as franchise cornerstones. Whitmore and Walker would fit the Pistons' needs and Monty's coaching style like a glove. 

My dark-horse landing spot for Ausar is Dallas at No. 10, as the Mavs have needed help at the three ever since trading Dorian Finney-Smith. Much like DFS, Ausar has solid defensive upside and should continue to develop his long-range game. 

Betting advice: Bet Amen -130 to get picked fourth by the Rockets or +450 to go sixth to the Magic; Bet Ausar +450 to go seventh to the Pacers or +4000 to go 10th to the Mavericks.

Ausar vs. Jarace Walker: Who will be the first to be drafted?

Ausar finds himself in a second head-to-head prop a little further down the list after his H2H prop with Amen. Personally, I like Walker to get picked ahead of Ausar because he's bigger, stronger, and has freakish explosiveness. Whereas Ausar is 6-7, 218, Walker is 6-8, 240 — NBA-ready size and strength. And not many teams within the top six need ball-dominant drive-to-the-hoop scorers like Ausar.

Houston already has multiple dribble-and-drive playmakers and could be adding Harden and/or Amen. Detroit has Cunningham and Ivey and needs some size and toughness at the three and four, while also needing to plan for life after Bogey. Orlando has Franz Wagner at the three and 2022 No. 1 pick Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr., Jonathan Isaac, and Bol Bol in the front court. The Magic need a point guard, and I think they will go to Anthony Black to be their next Penny Hardaway (or maybe Josh Giddey?). 

It's conceivable Ausar goes ahead of Jarace, but I certainly wouldn't put a -175 wager on it. I like capitalizing on Jarace's +140 odds here or fading the prop entirely. 

Betting advice: Bet Walker +140 to get selected before Ausar or fade the prop entirely.