WNBA Finals 2023 odds: Aces, Liberty favorites to win title, Mystics among sleepers

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The 2023 WNBA regular season is scheduled to tip off on Friday night. All 12 teams will start with a clean slate and vie for a WNBA championship. Heading into this season, all eyes will be on the Aces and Liberty, who had busy offseasons. The reigning champs added future Hall-of-Famer Candace Parker and vet Alysha Clark to its star-studded core of A'ja Wilson, Chelsea Gray, Kelsey Plum, and Jackie Young.

Meanwhile, New York flipped its roster by acquiring former league MVP Jonquel Jones and Kayla Thorton in a three-team trade involving the Sun and Wings. After trading for Jones, the Liberty added another former MVP in Breanna Stewart, which sent shockwaves across the league. New York also signed veteran Courtney Vandersloot, forming a dynamic backcourt with Sabrina Ionescu. Head coach Sandy Brondello clearly has a mandate to get the Liberty back to the WNBA Finals for the first time since 2002.

While all the attention is on the star-studded Aces and Liberty, there are a couple of other teams to watch out for this season that could be worthwhile betting on. Below, we’ll break down if the Aces and Liberty are worth betting on to win the title right now and highlight a couple of sleepers that bettors should consider.

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WNBA Championship 2023 odds

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Team Odds
Aces +120
Liberty +130
Mystics +1300
Mercury +2500
Dream +4000
Sky +4000
Sun +4000
Wings +4000
Lynx +4000
Sparks +5000
Storm +5000
Fever +10000

WNBA Championship odds 2023: Favorites

A'ja Wilson Las Vegas Aces
NBA Entertainment

Aces (+120). The Aces were the best team in the league last season, finishing the regular season with a 26-10 record en route to a WNBA title. Las Vegas will try to do what the Sky couldn't do last season and win back-to-back titles.

Led by second-year head coach Becky Hammon, Vegas features two-time MVP and Defensive Player of the Year A'ja Wilson, Finals MVP Chelsea Gray, Most Improved Player Jackie Young, Kelsey Plum, Candace Parker, and Alysha Clark. It will be tough to beat this squad on a nightly basis, as they should be able to defend at a high level and put up a ton of points. Last season, the Aces scored a league-high 90.4 points per game (first in the WNBA) and allowed 84.1 points per game (ninth in the WNBA). 

At +120 odds, we wouldn't fault bettors for wagering on the Aces to win the title now. However, it might be good to see how they fare through their first 10 games, as they will play six games on the road. A slow start could lead to slightly better value. Nevertheless, we won't be surprised to see them in the WNBA Finals later this year, especially if everything goes to plan and they can stay healthy.

Liberty (+130). After making multiple blockbuster moves in the offseason, bettors expect New York to be playing in the WNBA Finals for the first time in 21 years. The Liberty's roster is loaded with Jones and Stewart, who can average double-doubles in their sleep. New York also has Vandersloot and Ionescu, who can score and get others involved.

However, don't sleep on Betnijah Laney, Stefanie Dolson, Marine Johannes, and Kayla Thorton. Laney only played in nine games due to injury last season, but she averaged 16.8 points, 5.2 assists, and 4.1 rebounds per game in 2021. As for Johannes, she scored 10 points per game and shot 43.7 percent from three-point range last season. Sandy Brondello has a talented squad that could see its title odds improve drastically with a good start.

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WNBA Championship odds 2023: Sleepers

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Mystics (+1300). The Mystics are one of our sleepers to win the WNBA title despite having the third-best odds behind the Liberty and Aces. Washington might not have Mike Thibault on the sidelines anymore, but this veteran-led squad has experience. Last year, the Mystics finished the regular season with a 22-14 record and lost to Seattle in the first round of the WNBA playoffs.

The Mystics likely would've had a better record if Elena Delle Donne wasn't being load-managed due to back injuries. According to Brian Martin of WNBA.com, the Mystics were 18-7 last season when Delle Donne was in the lineup. Looking forward to this season, Delle Donne has said, "I don't plan to miss any games." 

If that's the case, then the Mystics could give the Liberty and Aces a run for the WNBA crown this season. Along with Delle Donne, Natasha Cloud, Ariel Atkins, and Shakira Austin return, while newcomers Brittany Sykes, Kristi Tolliver, and Amanda Zahui B will help add depth. Cloud had a tremendous 2022, averaging a career-high 10.7 points, 7.0 assists, and 3.6 rebounds, and was one of the league's best defenders (100 DRtg). Meanwhile, Atkins shot 36.5 percent from beyond the arc and scored 14.6 points per game last season. The 26-year-old guard is shooting 36.7 percent from deep over her career and will be key to the Mystics' success this season.

Brionna Jones (Sun), A'ja Wilson (Aces)
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Sun (+4000). The Sun lost in the WNBA Finals last season to the Aces and made some substantial changes. Connecticut traded former MVP Jonquel Jones and Kayla Thornton in a three-team deal with the Liberty and Wings. They also traded veteran guard Jasmine Thomas to Los Angeles.

Connecticut will also have a new head coach on the sidelines, as Stephanie White is taking over for Curt Miller. White was recently the head coach at Vanderbilt (2016-21) and has some WNBA head coaching experience with the Fever (2015-16). Despite a ton of turnover, Connecticut still has a good roster with DeWanna Bonner, Alyssa Thomas, Brionna Jones (2022 Sixth Player of the Year), Tiffany Hayes, Rebecca Allen, and Natisha Hiedeman.

The Sun have a tough stretch to start the season as five out of their first 10 games will be against the Liberty, Mystics, and Aces. Connecticut is receiving the fourth-most ticket percentage (10.1) and fourth-most handle percentage (10.3) to win the WNBA title behind the Mercury, Liberty, and Aces.

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Jovan Alford is a content producer at The Sporting News
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