During the heart of the historic MVP race between Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge in 2022, Ohtani often looked like he wasn't having much fun. Now that the pressure has seemingly lifted off his shoulders — and he sits as a heavy -250 favorite to win the AL's most coveted award, not to mention a solid contender for AL Cy Young at +1400 — the Japanese phenom seems to be having the time of his life.
Who can blame him? His Angels, who missed the playoffs in each of his first five seasons as a pro, currently sit six games above .500 with only six teams in the AL sporting better records. The 28-year-old is a 6-4, 210-pound pitching, hitting, running, and fielding unicorn, and he has fingerprints all over L.A.'s run at the postseason.
Ohtani leads the American League with 21 home runs, with his most recent one to take the AL lead going opposite field at over 116 miles per hour off his bat (that's the hardest-hit oppo-bomb by a lefty in the eight years of the Statcast era). He leads the majors with a whopping 161 total bases (for context, Blue Jays' SS Bo Bichette ranks second with 150, and Rangers' 2B Marcus Semien sits third with 135). He has a team-leading 52 RBIs, 45 runs, .299 average, .610 slugging percentage, .987 OPS, and 10 stolen bases.
There's no record of any big leaguer ever hitting a baseball like this and I'm completely serious. It's incredible.pic.twitter.com/3Sr2f9f5iS
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) June 15, 2023
He's been no slouch on the mound, either. He's 5-2 with a 3.32 ERA, 1.039 WHIP, and 102 strikeouts in just 76 innings. His 5.3 average hits allowed per nine innings ranks No. 1 among qualified MLB pitchers, and he averages more strikeouts per nine (12.1) than everyone but Braves ace Spencer Strider (14.5) and Blue Jays veteran Kevin Gausman (12.2).
Fret not, Sabermetrics nerds — we could talk about Ohtani's advanced pitching and batted-ball data all day. The 2021 MVP sits in the top three percentile in maximum exit velocity (116.7 mph), expected slugging (.587), and weighted OBA (.412). He's also among the top six percent of the league in average exit velo (92.9 mph). On the mound, he maintains a whiff rate of 37.5 percent on his breaking stuff and an xBA of .221 on his off-speed pitches.
Any way you slice it, Ohtani is an absolutely dominant force in every facet of the game. Yours truly argued two weeks ago that Aaron Judge yielded great value at +550 on the MVP futures board. Well, that's out the window now, and I'm wearing the L while I eat my humble pie. With Judge now hurt (toe) and Astros' slugger Yordan Alvarez joining him on the IL (oblique), Ohtani can basically put it in cruise control on his path to a second MVP. Unless he gets hurt, there's no conceivable way anyone in the AL can catch up to him even if he falls into a personally unprecedented slump.
Shohei Ohtani is on pace for such a casual 9.7 bWar season, he’s gonna sleep walk to the AL MVP lol pic.twitter.com/oJDHUAdQMz
— Addison (@YankeeWRLD) June 15, 2023
What's even wilder to think about is that Ohtani has an outside shot of winning MVP and Cy Young, a feat that has been accomplished by just 12 pitchers since the Cy Young Award was introduced in 1956. Ohtani has the eighth-best odds to win the AL Cy Young, sitting at +1400, and he has been known to get better on the mound as the season progresses. Unbelievably, FanDuel listed a prop "Shohei Ohtani to win AL MVP and AL Cy Young Award" at +1100. Imagine only netting a little over a grand on a $100 bet after winning a bet on something that's been done just a dozen times in 67 years?
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One thing's for sure: Ohtani doesn't care about the stats. The Angels are finally winning and looking like a bona fide AL contender, and their unicorn is having the time of his life. We have perhaps never seen the six-year veteran so lighthearted, celebratory, and animated before, during, and after games. His personality shining through only improves his chances at winning over everyone around the sport of baseball on his way to his second unanimous MVP selection. If you were wondering about history there, you guessed right — he would be the only player in MLB history to win two league MVPs unanimously.
Does anything surprise you with this guy anymore? It shouldn't. He's the best in the business, and he's sitting on top of the world. The destination at the end of this unicorn's rainbow is more MVP glory. All we have to do as bettors and fans is sit back and enjoy the ride.
Betting advice: If you have the bankroll and can stomach the juice, you're almost guaranteed a win if you wager on Ohtani to win MVP at -250, but you'd have to risk $500 to net $200 in profit, so we completely understand if that's outside of your budget or comfort zone.
As cool of a storyline as it would be, we don't see Ohtani taking down the Cy Young at +1400. The Rays' Shane McClanahan has been the best pitcher in the majors on the best team in the majors, and even if Mac gets hurt or hits the skids, he will likely have Gerrit Cole, Framber Valdez, and Kevin Gausman right on his heels.
What we will keep our eyes on as bettors is odds on Ohtani winning MVP unanimously, which would probably be much less juiced based on the inherent risk of relying on 100-percent rationality from the baseball writers. If we can get Ohtani at -200 to win MVP — or -175 to win MVP unanimously — we would smash a bet as fast as he smashes balls in the center of the strike zone.