Oops...Elly's done it again.
The Reds phenom has skyrocketed up the 2023 NL Rookie of the Year odds board, all the way to second place at +350 behind only Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll (-140). Call it the power of hype or the hype of power, but this 21-year-old unicorn is moving the needle and generating a ton of betting action.
In his MLB debut earlier this week, De La Cruz walked and promptly scored, thanks in large part to his blistering speed. He then smashed a double to right center in his second at-bat, a hard-hit liner that recorded over 112 miles per hour off the bat. He has registered speeds up to 118.8 mph in the minors. Overall, it was a pretty solid first game for the Reds' new cleanup hitter.
MORE: Full details on De La Cruz and his call-up from the Reds
Game No. 2 was even more kind for the 6-5, 200-pound prodigy. EDLC launched his first homer 458 feet to the right-field bleachers, much to the delight of two young Cincinnati fans. It's official: Elly De La Cruz is real, and he's a very real threat to Carroll in the NL Rookie of the Year race.
Elly De La Cruz casually goes 458 feet for his first MLB career home run... pic.twitter.com/diImkK58YP
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) June 7, 2023
A bona fide five-tool phenom, De La Cruz had already impacted the NL Rookie of the Year betting odds even though he had yet to play an MLB game. Entering the first weekend of June, he sat fourth on the futures board at +1600, nestled amongst fellow favorites like Carroll (+110), the Dodgers' James Outman (+600), and the Mets' Francisco Alvarez (+600).
He then shot up to +1000 the day he got called up. After his first-career homer, he split those odds in half and leapfrogged Outman and Alvarez like a Tesla racing a gas-powered muscle car. Now with multiple extra-base hits and a steal to go with his homer, he's up to +350, with Carroll's implied winning probability now at just over 58 percent.
Elly De La Cruz is the first player since 1953 to have a single, double, triple, HR & stolen base in their first three major league games 🤯 pic.twitter.com/Vy2JQ84l6a
— DraftKings (@DraftKings) June 8, 2023
So, should we buy into EDLC as a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate?
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Can Elly De La Cruz win NL Rookie of the Year?
In a word, yes. De La Cruz is a baseball "unicorn," similar to how Victor Wembanyama has proven himself to be in hoops. For starters, he's a 6-5, 200-pound switch-hitting shortstop who can barrel the ball harder and faster (from both sides) than most of MLB's perennial All-Stars. He registers sprint speeds that blow away 99 percent of big-league baserunners. He fields his position well and throws the ball harder than most pitchers.
His minor league managers, teammates, and opponents have called him a "cheat code," a term that seems quite fitting to anyone who has seen his stats and highlights. In 35 triple-A games, De La Cruz racked up 11 homers, 24 extra bases, 33 RBIs, and 11 steals. For a 21-year-old switch-hitter to post a slash line of .293/.390/.626 and OPS of 1.015 is simply insane. Even his coaches had a tough time describing his overall contributions to the high-A Bats.
"Video-game like, sometimes," Louisville assistant coach Vince Harrison recently told Olivia Ray of WLWT NBC 5. "Dude's 21 years old — like, that's not normal. He comes up his next at-bat left-handed and hits a homer, and then his next at-bat he's hitting right-handed and hits a homer 430 feet and you're like 'that's what I do in the video game. This dude did it in real life.'"
De La Cruz isn't just a human highlight reel — he also has the sabermetrics junkies and batted-ball nerds salivating.
He's already hit a ball 118.8 miles per hour this season, harder than 2023 MLB max-velo leaders Matt Olson of Atlanta and Jake Burger of the White Sox. He's also thrown the ball from shortstop at 99 miles per hour. No MLB shortstop has clocked better than 90 mph on a throw this season, and we haven't even seen an outfielder reach 97 mph. His sprint speed hits an absurd 30.9 feet per second, which would also be an MLB-best, ahead of Bobby Witt and Trea Turner at 30.4.
So yeah, he's a unicorn, and he will almost assuredly take the bigs by storm now that he's with the Reds, who sit just a handful of games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. We already know how the awestruck masses reacted to Japanese sensation Shohei Ohtani's two-way brilliance as a pitcher and hitter, and while De La Cruz might never reach that level of impact (it's possible nobody ever will), the rookie could easily become the best all-around player we have seen in the majors at his age since Mike Trout in 2013.
MORE: Reggie Jackson showers praise upon Shohei Ohtani
Of course, De La Cruz will have some work to do before convincing media members he deserves to be awarded as the top rookie. Carroll has been super solid for the Diamondbacks all season and deserves his current position atop the NL ROY odds board. He's slashing .287/.373/.523 and has tallied 16 stolen bases while getting caught just twice. But the 22-year-old outfielder has certainly not locked up ROY honors. He has yet to reach double-digits in homers, his average exit velocity is under 90 mph, and 55 percent of his hits have been singles.
It's also worth noting that a high steal count — while impressive most years — just isn't wowing the world the way it used to before the new MLB rules. Now that time-related legislation has been enacted, such as limiting pitchers to two unsuccessful pickoff attempts per runner, everyone is running and steals seem as watered down as ever. Hell, Esteury Ruiz of the A's has an MLB-leading 29 stolen bases in just 61 games, and he just recently cracked the top five in AL Rookie of the Year odds after hovering amongst the long-shots for a month and a half.
If De La Cruz can impress with his five-tool skills right off the bat and mash five-to-seven homers per month while also stealing bags, he can easily overtake the NL Rookie of the Year race by August. The media loves the long ball (just like chicks used to dig it), and both baseball historians and new-school stat-heads alike can appreciate this kid's insane skill set. And let's face it — this batch of NL rookies packs very little power punch.
If you're wondering if De La Cruz will be counted out of the race due to service time, think again. Wil Myers joined the Rays 70 games into the 2013 season and proceeded to take down AL Rookie of the Year honors after racking up 13 homers, five steals, and an AL rookie-high 53 RBIs in just 88 games. Philadelphia's Ryan Howard, powered by his 22 dingers and 63 RBIs, needed just 88 games to win NL ROY in '05.
There's no Griffey or Trout or Henderson or A-Rod in this class who can keep De La Cruz at bay if he comes up as scorching hot as he has been in the minors. If he maintains even close to his current level of sizzle, be prepared to add his name to that illustrious list moving forward.
Betting advice: Last week, we recommended betting on De La Cruz at +1800 to win NL Rookie of the Year, mentioning that we thought he would jump up to +900 once he got called up. Well, he's up, and he jumped to +1000 as soon as he got promoted, then +500, then +350. And yes, he still yields value given just how across-the-board dominant his skill set has proven to be and how much attention he has garnered at every step of his promotion.